The future of Eurasia hinges significantly on the roles of China and India, two nations demonstrating remarkable resilience and growth across economic, technological, political, cultural, and spiritual domains. Their regional, continental, and global influence continues to evolve, shaping the international order. The relationship between Beijing and New Delhi has profound implications for Eurasia and beyond. Historically, China and India have engaged in extensive trade, philosophical exchanges, and shared innovations, laying a solid foundation for deep cooperation. Yet, territorial disputes and strategic mistrust have strained their relationship, posing challenges for regional stability and multilateral initiatives.
In this context, Russia can play a pivotal role in fostering improved China-India relations through the trilateral Russia-India-China (RIC) format. Despite being overshadowed by larger multilateral groups like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), RIC holds untapped potential for facilitating collaboration and trust-building. Strengthening RIC could significantly benefit Eurasian stability and global peace.
China and India share a long history of peaceful coexistence and mutual enrichment. The Maritime Silk Road facilitated extensive trade and cultural exchanges between the two civilizations. However, mid-20th-century territorial disputes, culminating in several border clashes, including those in May-June 2020 and December 2022, have cast a shadow over their bilateral relations. These disputes have fueled strategic mistrust, with Indian politicians often highlighting Beijing’s alleged attempts to encircle India through the “String of Pearls” strategy and support for Pakistan. Conversely, China views India’s closer ties with the United States and participation in initiatives like the Quad and I2U2 as threats to its influence in Eurasia.
This strained relationship impacts all Eurasian nations, including Russia. While Moscow could theoretically exploit the rivalry between its strategic partners, such an approach would be short-sighted and could erode the trust and goodwill essential for Russia’s long-term interests. Moreover, deteriorating China-India relations constrain the effectiveness of multilateral initiatives like the SCO and BRICS, creating opportunities for non-regional powers to increase their influence in Eurasia.
Given the complexities of China-India relations and their impact on Eurasian stability, it is imperative for Moscow to foster improved ties between Beijing and New Delhi through the RIC format. Here are several key areas where trilateral cooperation can be enhanced:
Moscow could propose joint development projects in the Russian Arctic and Far East regions, leveraging the strengths and needs of all three countries. For instance, the Russian seaport of Vladivostok could serve as a strategic hub for trilateral trade. Northern China’s Jilin province already plans to use Vladivostok for domestic transit, facilitating easier access to southern sea routes. Extending this arrangement to include Indian businesses could significantly boost trade and economic integration among the RIC countries.
Energy is another critical area for trilateral cooperation. Russia, a major hydrocarbon supplier, and China and India, two of the largest consumers, have much to gain from coordinated energy strategies. Collaborative projects in renewable energy generation and nuclear power could pave the way for a shared Eurasian energy system. Russia’s ongoing nuclear power plant projects in India (Kudankulam) and China (Tianwan and Xudapu) could serve as models for more ambitious trilateral initiatives.
In agriculture, Russia’s growing food exports can help meet the increasing demands of China’s and India’s burgeoning middle classes. Trilateral coordination in agriculture could stabilize Eurasian food markets, benefiting all three nations. Additionally, Russia’s position as a leading fertilizer exporter, combined with India’s status as the second-largest fertilizer importer and China’s dual role as exporter and importer, presents opportunities for a “fertilizer partnership” that could reshape global trade in this vital commodity.
Trilateral consultations on strategic stability and security are essential for building trust and preventing conflicts. Joint efforts to address international terrorism and religious fundamentalism could enhance mutual confidence and contribute to global peace. Regular RIC dialogues on these issues would demonstrate a commitment to maintaining regional stability and addressing common threats.
While RIC has significant potential, its effectiveness can be enhanced through flexible and issue-specific multilateralism. Given the diverse and sometimes crowded nature of BRICS and the SCO, smaller, problem-focused “RIC+” formats may be more effective. For example, engaging Iran in energy discussions, Brazil and Belarus in fertilizer trade talks, and Pakistan in nuclear stability dialogues could provide more focused and effective cooperation frameworks.
Flexible multilateralism allows RIC to adapt to specific challenges and opportunities, ensuring that collaboration remains relevant and impactful. This approach can help pave the way for more stable China-India relations and, by extension, a more stable Eurasian region.
Enhancing trilateral cooperation among Russia, India, and China is not only feasible but also strategically imperative for regional and global stability. By leveraging historical ties and focusing on areas of mutual interest, the RIC format can foster deeper collaboration and trust between Beijing and New Delhi. Russia’s role as a mediator and facilitator in this process is crucial. Through joint development projects, coordinated energy strategies, agricultural collaboration, and strategic stability dialogues, RIC can significantly contribute to a more stable and prosperous Eurasia.
Flexible and problem-focused multilateralism will further enhance RIC’s effectiveness, ensuring that the cooperation adapts to evolving challenges and opportunities. By prioritizing RIC, Moscow, Beijing, and New Delhi can set the stage for a new era of Eurasian cooperation, benefiting not only the three nations but the entire continent and beyond.